S46 · Predictive Analytics & Forecasting

Declared state: **removed by decision 2026-10-03** — no ML forecasting (D-28). A deterministic calendar look-ahead serves scheduling; that logic belongs to S21 and S33. · retired.

This is the repository plan and evidence, not a live health reading. A task marked done may still depend on credentials, devices, deployment or a newer acceptance test.

Dependencies

No dependencies are declared in the catalog.

Tasks and gates

46.F1 · A single predictor: **will today's plan fit the day**, from calendar + task estimates +

Tier F · done · Verification: hermetic-test

Gate: `test_forecast.py`

  • recorded-note · 2026-09-13 · docs/SYSTEMS-DETAILS.md:4410

46.F2 · Every prediction is recorded with its outcome so accuracy is measurable.

Tier F · done · Verification: hermetic-test

Gate: `test_forecast.py` [scoring ledger]

  • recorded-note · 2026-09-13 · docs/SYSTEMS-DETAILS.md:4422

46.F3 · A prediction below a confidence floor is not spoken.

Tier F · done · Verification: hermetic-test

Gate: `test_forecast.py` [suppression]

  • recorded-note · 2026-09-13 · docs/SYSTEMS-DETAILS.md:4431

46.R1 · A second predictor once the first beats a naive baseline: task-duration estimation.

Tier R · cancelled · Verification: hermetic-test

Gate: `test_forecast.py` [baseline comparison]

  • owner-decision · undated · docs/DECISIONS.md D-28

46.R2 · Trend extrapolation on the signals already collected (screen time, sleep, spend).

Tier R · cancelled · Verification: hermetic-test

Gate: `test_forecast.py` [trends]

  • owner-decision · undated · docs/DECISIONS.md D-28

46.R3 · "What if" — one scenario at a time, stated as a scenario.

Tier R · cancelled · Verification: hermetic-test

Gate: `test_forecast.py` [scenario]

  • owner-decision · undated · docs/DECISIONS.md D-28

46.E1 · Predictions beat the naive baseline over a month, with the ledger to prove it.

Tier E · cancelled · Verification: manual

Gate: forecast ledger review.

  • owner-decision · undated · docs/DECISIONS.md D-28

HUD screen contracts

All subsystems · Source: docs/systems-plan.json.